Your Goal Today Is to Draft a Phillies Stack in the Pennant
Why I'm embracing the Philly Vibes, emotionally and analytically
Just as a reminder, before continuing this article, that if you haven’t done so already then you need to read Chris’ manifesto on last year’s MLB playoff Best Ball tournament.
Doing so should be considered “table stakes” before even entering the contest.
As a quick refresher, here were my biggest takeaways:
Stacking 2 teams total is optimal
If you stack a 3rd team, take no more than 2 players from it
5 pitcher builds are preferred
The more “bye team” players you draft, the less likely your advance rate
Caught up? Great!
So last week, when the tournament first opened, I wrote about how it was your best chance to maximize Braves and Dodgers stacks. That proved to be true. Spencer Strider is now 2nd overall in ADP. Clayton Kershaw, Max Fried, Ozzie Albies, and others have all risen. Everyone wants a piece of the National League superpowers.
And that creates leverage.
Now is the time to let everyone else fight over incomplete Braves/Dodgers stacks. No matter your draft slot, it’s impossible to get all the best players from those teams. There’s a reason for that. They’re essentially guaranteed to have Round 1 byes, increasing their chances of reaching the World Series.
But what if you could draft all the best players from a different team?
Affordable Phillies
Here are today’s ADPs for the top-6 Phillies players. A full stack is there if you want it, and you should — for multiple reasons.
One is that this is a team led by its stars. Whereas the Orioles (who could be the 1 seed in the American League) are built more on depth and don’t have great pitching options for this contest, we 100% know who the Phillies are built through.
In fact, we just saw this crew reach the World Series last year.
If the Phillies reach the World Series again, it’s very likely due to the performance of this core.
That matters, because the same can’t be said for other teams you might want to fully stack.
Decreased Risk
While I might currently be overly high on Philly Vibes as I’m calling it, stacking them makes sense from a game theory perspective as well.
After seeing some early drafts with Braves/Dodgers stacks, and which AL teams were stacked on the other side, I realized how much risk those builds have.
The reason is we don’t know who the Round 1 bye teams are in the AL.
The Orioles are likely one, but it could also be the Rays. In the West, it could be any of the Mariners, Rangers, or Astros.
So that means if you stacked Dodgers-Rangers for instance, there’s a chance both teams have a Round 1 bye, and as Chris explained, that entry is dead. You won’t have enough production to advance past the Wild Card / Divisional Round.
Taking on that risk for elite Braves/Dodgers stack prices made sense when the contest first launched.
But at today’s prices, it doesn’t.
Phillies stacks avoid this issue entirely.
It doesn’t matter who you stack the Phillies with, because even if that AL team winds up with a bye, you still know your Philly players (who are all legit stars!) will be accumulating points for you in Round 1.
In fact, since the Phillies are so affordable today, I’d want to stack them with several different AL teams — Texas, Seattle, Houston, Baltimore, etc.
We’ve already seen ADP swing wildly in just under a week. I’m expecting Phillies prices to rise throughout September, which could make this goal impossible soon enough — just as the ideal Braves/Dodgers stacks have become impossible.
This is what makes the Pennant so interesting. Your stack targets should change throughout draft season.
Today, your goal is to target Phillies. For game theory reasons. But also because of the Philly Vibes.