The Biggest Edge to Take Advantage of in Early Pennant Drafts
Today's Braves and Dodgers Prices Won't Be Available Tomorrow
The Pennant just dropped, and you’re probably wondering what type of early edge there is to be had. Luckily, Stacking Dingers has you covered.
Before you even continue reading this article, make sure you’ve read Chris’ manifesto on last year’s tournament. Doing so should be considered table stakes for playing MLB Playoff Best Ball. It’s simply negative EV to enter this contest without having done so.
Caught up? Great. Here are the key points I took away from Chris’ research:
Stacking 2 teams total is optimal
If you stack a 3rd team, take no more than 2 players from it
5 pitcher builds are preferred
The more “bye team” players you draft, the less likely your advance rate
How can we apply these lessons to drafts right now? As Chris noted, an overwhelming majority of Pennant drafts took place closer to the postseason last year, and so one approach is to think backwards:
“What will I not be able to get later that I can get now?”
The benefits of drafting later are obvious — more information on injuries and playoff participants, etc.
That also means ADP will be most efficient then.
And, historically speaking, drafting on the first day a new MLB Best Ball contests launches on Underdog has been a wise decision.
Even in January (several weeks after 2023 best ball launched), Corbin Carroll was available in the mid-80s. By late-March he was going in the early-40s, and he wound up finishing even higher than that.
So there was tremendous closing line value with that Carroll example. In both the offseason and in-season MLB contests from the past year, we’ve seen pitchers rise in value as tournaments begin to fill as well. That’s something I plan to cover this offseason.
So early ADP is soft. In general. What will it look like in it most efficient form? I’d guess it is littered with Braves and Dodgers players both going aggressively early.
Here are the highest Fangraphs’ World Series odds:
Braves 27.5%
Dodgers 14.7%
Astros 11.1%
Rays 9.4%
These aren’t everything, but they do take into account the potential for a bye, the quality of a team, etc. That matters for drafting in The Pennant. And it’s just so clear that the Braves and Dodgers are the two favorites.
Therefore, it makes sense to get your best possible Braves and Dodgers stacks right now.
I’m not saying you’re going to be able to get all of them. You won’t be. But there’s basically no world in which Braves/Dodgers ADPs loosen between now and late September. Every person who enters this contest is going to want a piece of the dominant NL superpowers.
As Chris outlined, 2 team stacks are best. If the goal is to stack Atlanta as one of your teams, then you want the best Braves possible.
Pick whichever American League team you can pair with them (ideally NOT one who is going to have a bye), and starting firing.
Today is your best chance at making it happen.