The Bullpen Biggest ADP Risers and Fallers

ADP Watch with Paul

Written by Paul Dika follow him here.

In large-field best ball tournaments, a winning strategy is more than simply drafting “good” players — it comes from consistently beating the market. Early in a tournament’s lifecycle, pricing inefficiencies tend to be the most pronounced as news, role clarity, and public sentiment catch up to reality. Identifying which players have been pushed up and which are slipping is one of the biggest edges available. Below are some of the most notable ADP risers and fallers from the early phase of the tournament.

Risers

Trevor Story - ADP (188 -> 187.4 -> 164.4)

Trevor Story finally put together a healthy season in 2025, playing in 157 games compared to 163 total over the previous three. Story hit the ball hard, popping 25 homers, while adding 30 steals, but because of his poor swing decisions, he still only managed a .741 OPS and a 101 wRC+.

He’s going late enough in drafts where he makes sense in builds with Red Sox stacks, but regression and his injury history present plenty of concern for the upcoming season if the price continues to rise.

Taylor Ward - ADP (101 -> 79.3 -> 53.7)

The Orioles have been all over the MLB hot stove, making a flurry of moves, including acquiring Taylor Ward from the Angels for Grayson Rodriguez.

Ward is flying up draft boards, and for good reason. He’s coming off a career year, reaching highs in homers (36), BB% (11.3) and ISO (.247). His projections have him coming down from those numbers, but the upgrade in offensive environment can’t be ignored. Ward is expected to slot into the middle of a lineup that also recently added Pete Alonso, and is flush with young talent. With Ward being drafted at an all time high, and drafters now must decide if they want to chase the scarce OF position or opt for enticing IF names like Austin Riley, Manny Machado, Trea Turner, or Mookie Betts.

Gerrit Cole - ADP (226 -> 174 -> 141.6)

Gerrit Cole missed all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery and recent reports suggest he could return sometime in May/June. In addition to his late arrival, available projections have Cole at 130 IP with an ERA around 4, driving his ADP to the mid 130s in early drafts.

Considering his ADP sits around healthy starters with upside, like teammate Cam Schlittler, flamethrower Eury Perez, and bounce-back candidate Michael King, I’d rather take my chances elsewhere.

Fallers

Jeremy Pena - ADP (88 -> 101.3 -> 136.3)

Pena has dropped almost 50 picks since the contest opened, despite coming off a career year where he put up a 135 wRC+, with an OPS of .840.

Even with the success he found, Pena only hit 17 homers, while stealing 20 bases, providing fewer spike weeks and more real life than fantasy value. His BABIP 30 points higher than his career average, alongside a poor chase rate, make him a tough click compared to the arms and other IF bats in his range.

Teoscar Hernandez - ADP (39 -> 47.6 -> 56.8)

In a year where his team won the World Series, everything was not rosy for Hernandez, who had one of his worst offensive seasons in a long time. His xwOBA was the lowest it’s been since 2019, driven from a career low BB%(4.8) to go along with his typical daddy-hack, swing and miss approach he’s had most of his career.

On the positive side, early models have him returning to his career norms, with a 26 HR, .460 SLG, and 112 wRC+ projection from Steamer. Teo’s still on the Dodgers, OF eligible, and likely to produce enough power to make him an intriguing pick at the end of the 5th round.

Blake Snell - ADP (37 -> 47.4 -> 66.2)

Snell has always been an arm worth starting when he’s available, but how available will he be in 2026? The Dodgers held a six-man rotation for most of the season and were more than okay to slow-play pitchers coming back from injury.

Projecting injuries is never recommended, but it’s worth noting that Snell has only reached 180 innings twice in his ten year career. The Dodgers are almost assured a playoff spot at the beginning of the season, so there’s no reason to overwork any of their key pieces. With so many workhorses on the board in this range, Snell will need to fall further to move out of being a soft fade for me in these early drafts.