Solving The Outfield Problem on Underdog Fantasy
Points Per PA, Drafting Inside-Out, and Christian Yelich
Earlier this week Matt and I introduced the world to Stacking Dinger’s YouTube channel, talking through the first few rounds of best ball ADP on Underdog Fantasy.
Our first topic, which is the number one thing anyone notices when booting up a draft, is that Round 1 consists almost entirely of outfielders:
As of this writing Kyle Tucker is followed by Yordan Alvarez and Spencer Strider. While those 3 have oscillated spots in recent days, the message is clear — immediately secure your OF1…. or face the consequences.
Last year we began to really understand outfield scarcity in this format, but outside of picking one early and seeking pockets of value later on, it wasn’t clear what the action items were. It felt as if just being aware of this phenomenon was a head start.
Now we’re drafting for 2024, earlier than ever on Underdog as The Bullpen has been live for several weeks. (shoutout Neumy and Hope Bishop!)
Talking with Matt I found myself wanting to have more of an answer for attacking outfield as a position. One of the most common ideas is to begin reaching on mid-range OFers, sacrificing valuable IF/P points in order to combat position scarcity.
Another option is to fade OF almost entirely, securing 1 or 2 every-week options and then potentially “buying in bulk” across the final rounds.
Neither option is overly compelling without a full understanding of the player pool, and it’s why I always want to consider drafting “inside-out” (something I plan to write about more this offseason).
The idea of inside-out drafting is to begin by asking yourself “what can I confidently get midway through drafts?” — and this will better inform your approach to early selections. For instance, right now ADP is set up in a way where it’s easy to land one of Zack Wheeler, Luis Castillo, or several other aces at the 3/4 turn. This makes me unwilling to reach for Spencer Strider/Gerrit Cole in the opening 15 picks. I know I can get an ace I’m happy with later on.
So how does this apply to OF? To answer that I plugged Underdog’s scoring into Steamer’s 2024 projections to get a sense of who the market might be undervaluing or overvaluing. I also set up an additional column calculating “points per plate appearance.” Playing time is very tough to project, so I find it useful to understand who the best pure talents are, at least according to Steamer’s numbers.
For this exercise I limited the player pool to outfielders being selected inside the top 200 overall. Here are the outfielders going within the first 60 picks:
Right away we see how Steamer sees players like Brandon Nimmo and Nick Castellanos as more of accumulators. They aren’t putting up massive points per PA, but they’re projected to play enough to where they’ll still be very useful to roster.
Another clear takeaway from this initial chart is Yordan Alvarez’s points per PA, which is actually second highest among all position players. Steamer pegs him for 620 PAs next season, which ranks 79th overall. It’s worth noting he’s never actually hit that number, with a career-best 598 coming in 2021. And yet his skill set is so perfect for UD’s scoring. He’s currently an incredibly exciting click late in Round 1.
Up next we see the inverse of the Nimmo profile, highlighted by Jazz Chisholm and Nolan Jones, who are accurately viewed as high-upside options by the projections. Do you feel lucky banking on Jazz’s health? What about investing in Jones’ limited track record of success?
Steven Kwan predictably grades out as another accumulator, while Jorge Soler looks mis-priced by any measure. His free agent landing spot could have a big effect on his ADP moving forward.
Rounding out the top 200 helps us visualize just how thin OF becomes. Byron Buxton, Christopher Morel, and Jack Suwinski looks like solid upside bets at this stage, but can we trust them to play enough?
Perhaps the relative safety of TJ Friedl, Taylor Ward, or MJ Melendez is worth selecting here, particularly if you took several upside swings prior to this point in your draft.
I’ll note that the further down we get in ADP, the less tied I am to projections, especially for young players. Youngsters are more likely to make an unexpected leap in talent than veterans. In a tournament structure that rewards super teams, it may be that it’s worth choosing the unknown of Jarren Duran over the predictability of Austin Hays. Thinking through this sort of roster construction, specifically within a single position, is probably an edge to be gained right now.
What It All Means
My goal with today’s post wasn’t to definitively declare the most obvious OF picks to help solve the scarcity problem, although I hope this exercise and these charts helped stimulate some thoughts on the issue.
I’ll close with some of my takeaways, but my real hope with this piece is that it’ll help advance the conversation on not just who we’re drafting, but how we’re drafting.
Key Takeaways:
Projections aren’t everything! I find them incredibly useful for helping us understand UD’s unique scoring, but I’ve been spending a lot of time poking around Steamer this fall and one macro area I entirely disagree with the system on is stolen bases. More coming on that, but let this serve as your reminder that projections are a tool, not gospel.
Remember this chart from Chris last offseason? It’s using 2022 ADP/scoring to highlight how at nearly every step of the draft it was more optimal to take an infielder over an outfielder. Infielders are easier to find AND typically score more points. It’s why the OF problem exists in the first place. This should help guide your thinking as to how you’re going to approach OF in drafts.
Something I’m hoping to explore with Chris this offseason is where FLEX points come from. I have a hunch that, most weeks, teams are generating FLEX scoring from an infielder. This makes me want to lean into the idea of viewing my starting lineup as 4 IF / 3 OF. Instead of leaving my FLEX up to chance, I want to be dominating that position on a weekly basis. Maybe super-charging IF in the middle rounds helps accomplish that.
If there’s a clear winner from these Steamer projections it’s Christian Yelich, who is somewhat of an auto-click in Round 3 right now. Beginning a draft with a trio of Tucker-JoRam-Yelich or Carroll-Vlad-Yelich is so appealing. The focus immediately shifts to IF/P depth for a long while. Yelich can even be viewed as an OF1 in the right build. Not all accumulators are created equal!
Michael Harris’ low season-long projection is a bummer, but it’s important to remember he primarily hits 9th for Atlanta. Yes, the Braves’ lineup is ridiculous, but I don’t think we can bet on a historically dominant year from them again. If Harris ever consistently hits 2nd against righties, like he did when Ozzie Albies was hurt, it would be an absolute game-changer for him.
At the risk of being wrong on Adolis Garcia for the 4th year in a row, I’m out at this price. We’ll see where the other projection systems wind up on him, but firmly inside Round 2?! I can’t do it.
Happy drafting! As always reach out on Twitter anytime, @toomuchtuma, to further discuss.
And be sure to subscribe to Stacking Dingers on YouTube for weekly discussions on the edges to be gained in this great game!