January 23 to Feb 22 ADP Report
ADP Watch with Paul
Written by Paul Dika, follow him here.
Baseball is BACK. Spring Training is underway, and the World Baseball Classic is just around the corner. Drafters finally get a chance to determine if their priors match the eye test and reevaluate if they’re overweight or underweight on their targets and fades. March will be ripe with news and updates as teams start closing in on their Opening Day rosters, so what better time to look at who’s gaining or losing steam in best ball drafts?
Risers
Eugenio Suárez - ADP (101.3 → 84.1)
Geno drafters could not be happier that the slugging third basemen opted to sign a 1-year deal with the Reds, rather than run it back with the Mariners in 2026. Suarez returns to his old club AND one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball - a big deal considering he carried a sub - .700 OPS in the final two months of the season with Seattle.
Suarez continues to sell out for homers, and at his age, he’s paying for it with strikeout and chase rates that are concerning for an aging veteran. The lineup is a downgrade, and he goes in a range of intriguing IF bats like Bregman, Bichette, and Seager, who all project to outpace Suarez in overall production. With that being said, homers are difference makers in best ball, so a full fade of Suarez is not recommended.
Daulton Varsho - ADP (145.8 → 119.5)
In an injury-shortened season, Varsho still matched his second-highest home run output, mashing 20 dingers in only 71 games. Small sample sizes should always be taken with a grain of salt, but even the projections expect Varsho to smash this year - every system, except OOPSY, has him with an ISO over .200 and at least 20+ homers.
Before last season, Varsho had struggled to provide league-average production, but his elite defence has established him as a mainstay in Toronto’s lineup. With Jesus Sanchez and Addison Barger (both lefties) slated to play the corner outfield positions, the Jays will only have so many platoon options. If his production lands somewhere between his down years and his monster 2025, Varsho is still worth the pick at his new price.
Emmet Sheehan - ADP (212.4 → 181.2)
Blake Snell isn’t going to be ready for the start of the season… shocking, I know. For all the reservations with drafting pitchers in six-man rotations, Emmet Sheehan still feels worthy of a 16th-round pick. His weekly upside is capped by the lack of two-start weeks, but his single-game ceiling can’t be ignored. His K%, Whiff%, and Chase% are all in the 90th percentile, and someone will need to make starts for the Dodgers if they’re keeping Snell, Glasnow, and Ohtani in bubblewrap during the regular season.
There is always pitching available late in drafts, but Sheehan can be one of those arms that goes closer to pick 100 than 200 in 2027.
Fallers
Spencer Steer - ADP (160.7 → 190.9)
As the newest Cincinnati Red shoots up draft boards, the one he displaced has fallen. Steer’s fit on the roster was already a question mark before the Suarez signing, but now, drafters are more skeptical of the utility man finding regular at-bats.
They’re right to be concerned. The majority of projections have Steer as a part-time player, with most models expecting around 400 PAs this season. Even if he does find a way to get in the lineup every day, Steer has failed to be a league-average bat by wRC+, even with consecutive 20-home run campaigns. Round 16 feels late enough to consider him in stacks, but even then, IF runs deep, and there are far more attractive targets *cough* BIG STEW *cough*.
Jarren Duran - ADP (25.8 → 30.5)
Early reports out of Red Sox camp indicate Alex Cora is considering a platoon partner for Jarren Duran, and understandably so. Duran has managed a 70 wRC+ against southpaws in over 500 ABs over his career. Even in his 2024 breakout campaign, he buoyed his overall numbers by carrying a .910 OPS against righties, alongside a .665 OPS against same-handed pitching.
This could be noise, but almost all of the Red Sox outfield options are left-handed. Duran, Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, and Masataka Yoshida are all on the table, and even though Abreu has struggled against lefties in a small sample, Cora has already indicated he’s in play for more left-on-left ABs. Even if Duran manages to stay in the lineup against lefties, I’m opting for higher upside from the OF in this range.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - ADP (42.3 → 48.4)
I get it - drafting pitchers early isn’t cool. Most of the time, I tend to agree, but the SP4 has fallen all the way to the 5th round of drafts, and I really don’t mind taking him there.
Is Yamamoto less likely to get a two-start week? Definitely. Does he pose a risk if the Dodgers choose to slow-play him if he is injured? Sure! But at this point in the draft, you likely have 4 strong position players to anchor your roster, so why not grab an elite arm that can put up strong single-game scores? Drafting Yamamoto following a 1IF/3OF start seems intriguing, and it doesn’t feel restrictive enough to prevent a 7P build if you’re itching for more two-start opportunities. You never know who you’re going to need in the playoffs, and Yamamoto is a talent worth investing in, even if he feels a tad expensive.