Jan 11 to Jan 23 ADP Report
ADP Watch with Paul
Written by Paul Dika follow him here.
We’re only weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training…what a time to be alive! With the release of the Dinger and multiple Bunt contests already filled, the ADP landscape has shifted greatly, thanks to high-volume drafters who have started doing their own research and diving into the numbers.
Drafters can have a hard time discerning how long buy into a player steaming up the board, or the dip on a faller. The latest ADP report looks at who’s trending north and south, why that may be the case, and if they’re worth considering at their new cost.
Risers
Konnor Griffin - ADP (204→162.4)
By the time you’re reading this, Griffin’s ADP has likely gone up another couple of spots.
The hype around MLB’s #1 overall prospect is palpable. Since the calendar flipped, the 19 year-old phenom has climbed three rounds in ADP and likely isn’t done steaming up boards.
The Pirates finally made moves this offseason to improve the roster, and their commitment to winning now suggests they’ll name Griffin as their opening day shortstop by Spring Training’s end. The biggest learning curve for prospects comes when they get to the Majors. Expecting Major League-level production from a player with one season of professional baseball under their belt is a big ask, especially for a player of Griffin’s age.
His skill set is so tantalizing, and he presents the kind of upside best ball drafters dream of. But he is starting to go around infielders with many years of above-average production, making the pick more difficult than it was a month ago. As badly as we want these young studs to hit the ground running, sometimes it takes longer than expected - Jackson Holliday faced similar hype only a couple of years ago, and failed to be a useful pick. I’ll be in on Griffin, but won’t be ignoring those being drafted around him either.
Kyle Tucker - ADP (10→7.6)
On top of winning the World Series, the Dodgers worked their magic to win the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes. Solidified in the first round of drafts since contests opened, Tucker has slid up to the middle of the first round, and for good reason. Tucker joins one of the league’s best lineups and is expected to slot in behind the league’s best hitter, Shohei Ohtani.
Tucker’s maintained a 10% barrel rate while barely striking out (15.8%) and walking a ton (11.5%) over his entire career. Tucker’s new ADP feels fair, and makes some of the teammate stacking options like Betts and Freeman more appealing. There’s a chance the Dodgers’ offense takes another leap with the addition of Tucker, and bounceback seasons from guys like Betts and Hernandez. Sounds appealing to me.
Ranger Suarez - ADP (183→160.1)
Suarez has shot up in ADP since signing his deal with the Red Sox earlier this month. The southpaw figures to slot in as the team’s number two in the rotation for the next five years, establishing a dynamic front-end duo with Garret Crochet.
Suarez’s success stems from his ability to generate weak contact, and last year, he was elite in that regard, holding opponents to a 31.1% hard hit rate. He will need to stay elite in that area, as he projects to have a below league-average K%, and moves from one hitter friendly park to another. He’s only 30, and pitchers tend to decline more gracefully than hitters, but I’m still wary of a soft-tossing lefty who relies on weak contact to get outs. Having settled in around the likes of Tanner Bibee, Ryan Pepiot, and Nathan Eovaldi, I’ll be considering those other options over Suarez
Fallers
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - ADP (13→15.9)
Vladdy is one of the most frustrating hitters in all of fantasy baseball. He has consistently demonstrated an ability to hit the piss out of the ball, but has been much less consistent in turning those hard hits into home runs. Over his career, he’s held a 7.5 degree launch angle, which means a lot of ground balls that rarely turn into extra-base hits. Despite his inconsistencies, drafters are rightfully intrigued by the batted ball skills and his elite ability to take walks without striking out.
Anyone who watched the playoffs knows why he routinely gets selected in the 2nd round of drafts. Guerrero Jr. can have white-hot stretches where he looks like Barry Bonds, and everything his bat touches leaves the yard. His floor is incredibly high, and there is still room for him to ascend to the levels he reached in 2021 when he put up an absurd .311/.401/.601 slash line. Vlad can keep falling, and I’ll keep buying.
Marcell Ozuna - ADP (132→162.5)
Ozuna, the former Brave, has yet to find a new home, and there haven’t been many rumors suggesting where he might land. In his age 34 season, Ozuna still showed plenty of discipline and pop to make him an intriguing pick.
There’s risk with selecting Ozuna in that teams may not be interested in shelling out money to an aging slugger who won’t provide any defensive value. He’s also showing signs of decline, with his bat speed falling 2 mph from his 2023 season, where he slugged 40 homers. However, he’s now slotting in around guys like Sal Frelick, Nick Castellanos, and Ramon Laureano. If hearing those names made you shudder, maybe it’s time to look past some of his concerns and mix in Ozuna when you need OF help late in drafts.
Zack Wheeler - ADP (91→108.6)
Seeing Wheeler’s ADP is a bit jarring. This is easily the cheapest the Phillies right-hander has been in years, but that’s because of the uncertainty he brings. Any pitcher coming off an injury carries a level of concern, but his diagnosis of venous thoracic outlet syndrome feels extra worrisome.
He had surgery to address the issue towards the end of last season. The most recent update from the team doesn’t instill a lot of confidence. His GM and Manager commented on Wheeler, saying he’s throwing from 90 feet, but not on a mound yet, per se. Based on where he’s at with his recovery, he feels like a long shot to be ready for opening day.
Wheeler returning a zero in 2026 is well within his range of outcomes. Best Ball is a punishing game, and there are fully healthy players who will hit the shelf at some point during the season. If there are any substantial developments in Wheeler’s progress, I’ll reconsider, but at this point, I’m staying away.