Dec 22 to Jan 02 ADP Report
ADP Watch with Paul
Written by Paul Dika follow him here.
The holiday season flew by, and 2026 is already here. Before you know it, pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training, and it will be ‘this player is in the best shape of their lives’ season.
With The Bullpen at 75% filled, the release of Underdog’s flagship Best Ball contest The Dinger is just around the corner. The ADP landscape continues to evolve as MLB teams look to finalize their rosters for the upcoming season. To help you prepare for drafts, I’ve highlighted some recent risers and fallers, detailing why they may or may not be worth drafting at their new cost.
Risers
Wilson Contreras - ADP (232.0→184.2)
Contreras has been incredibly consistent over his last four seasons. He’s never dipped below 124 wRC+, and has popped at least 20 homers every year, except for an injury shortened 2024. In 2025, he posted a career-best barrel percentage (13.9%) and hard hit rate (49%), which were top 30 marks among qualified hitters.
Not only does Contreras project for another strong campaign (24 HR and a 117 wRC+ via THE BAT X), but he also shifts to a friendlier hitting environment. The 33-year-old slugger joins a potent Red Sox lineup and will play half of his games at Fenway, a top-10 park for righties according to Statcast Park Factors. Contreras is expected to slot in at 1B/DH every day, and considering the playing time risks for the IF around him in this range of the draft, Contreras looks like a smash at his ADP.
Adolis Garcia - ADP (146.1→135.5)
The Phillies were quick to pounce and sign Adolis Garcia after he was non-tendered by the Rangers earlier in the offseason. Since winning the World Series in 2013, Garcia has failed to post an OPS over .700 or a SLG percentage over .400, making him a fantasy liability rather than an asset.
Current projections anticipate some of the power coming back, but each system expects Garcia to be a below league-average hitter this year. Though he figures to get the majority of the playing time in RF, his inability to get on base and make contact consistently makes him a risky pick, especially with all of the intriguing pitching options on the board in round twelve.
Shane Baz - ADP (195.8→183.7)
Working to fortify their starting rotation for the upcoming season, the Orioles parted with several prospects to acquire Baz from the Tampa Bay Rays via trade. The 2017 first-round selection has yet to put it all together at the major league level, despite having an electric fastball and an arsenal of secondary pitches that have generated above-average strikeout rates.
Despite the intriguing stuff, Baz continues to get hit hard and issue free passes. As he enters his age 27 season, many analysts feel some small tweaks could unlock Baz’s potential. The Athletic’s Keith Law cited Steinbrenner Field and poor pitch selection as key contributors to the inflated HR/FB ratio, and his expected ERA of .385 suggests some bad luck as well.
Baz’s breakout isn’t a guarantee, but at pick 183, he has the combination of pedigree, stuff, and opportunity to make him a solid SP5/SP6 for your best ball squads.
Fallers
Freddie Freeman - ADP (34.2→37.2)
Behind Ohtani, Freeman proved to be the most valuable bat for the Dodgers during the regular season and was instrumental during their World Series Championship run. At 35, he still slugged, tallying 65 extra base hits, including 24 tanks, while getting on base at a .367 clip.
The dip in price likely comes from drafters prioritizing their OF spots early and pushing IF like Freeman down. Even factoring in some regression due to his age, he is still going to hit behind Ohtani and Betts, and have plenty of opportunities to do damage in one of baseball’s most potent lineups. If he’s still on the board in round 4, you have to feel good about taking him as your first or second IF.
Jackson Chourio - ADP (19.0→20.7)
By the time the 2026 regular season begins, Chourio will have turned 22, with two full seasons under his belt. Of the outfielders going in the first two rounds, Chourio has some of the weakest batted ball data, in part because of his 8th percentile chase rate and ability to make contact on pitches out of the zone.
Even with the negatives, Chourio has put up consecutive 20/20 seasons, flashing some power and speed. He’ll need to improve his patience and get closer to the walk rates he showed in the minors to take the next step. At his age, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic, but there are also so many hitters with big power in the 2nd round. Chourio’s profile feels ideal for roto leagues, but in best ball where we’re chasing spike weeks, it’s hard to fault drafters who prefer hitters like Brent Rooker, Rafael Devers, or Cal Raleigh.
Tarik Skubal - ADP (11.8→13.1)
There really isn’t anything negative to say about Tarik Skubal. He struck out opponents at an absurd 32.2% rate, and did so efficiently, converting 21 of his 31 outings into quality starts. It was hard to fathom an improvement on his breakout season, but he added another half-win in 2025, putting up an outrageous 6.6 WAR.
This ADP boils down to opportunity cost, and more so reflects the scarcity of other positions, rather than drafters feeling like Skubal isn’t worthy of a 1st round pick. Late SP values tend to be available each year in drafts, with breakouts at OF being harder to come by. Pitchers also come with far more volatility due to their inherent risk of injury, so don’t be surprised if some of these top arms get slightly cheaper as draft season continues.