ADP Risers and Fallers

ADP Watch with Paul

(Quick note from Sheep: this is the debut article from Paul Dika, who will be providing written work to the site this season. Follow him here.)

December has arrived, and with it comes the most exciting time of the year. No, it’s not the holidays or the start of the fantasy football playoffs. The Bullpen dropped last week, kicking off yet another season of MLB Best Ball on Underdog. This contest is an excellent way to shake off the rust, dive back into the player pool, and start thinking about breakouts and busts for the upcoming 2026 season. In just a few days, the ADP landscape is already shifting quickly. Drafting this early comes with many pros and cons, perhaps the most significant being the opportunity to draft certain players at their best price. To help break the ice, we’re going to look at some potential risers and fallers at each position.

As a general rule, unsigned players are shrouded in more ambiguity as we wait to see what type of environment they will be joining. However, understanding their profiles, where they may land, and what that means for their supporting cast, can help identify players who may shoot up the board, including a few who will be featured in this list.

Pitcher - Riser

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles - ADP (114.3)

2024 was looking like the year it would all click for Kyle Bradish, before his season was cut short with a UCL sprain that led to Tommy John surgery. In his first full season in 2023, Bradish demonstrated an ability to get both righties and lefties out, thanks to a wipeout slider that generated a 36.4% whiff rate and a curveball that had a similar 36.1% whiff rate. Coming into 2024, The Athletic’s Eno Sarris had Bradish ranked 21st among all starters based on his Stuff+ model, and cited his slider as ‘perhaps the best slider’ in the game.

After delaying the start of his season due to the initial injury that ultimately led to TJ, Bradish was pitching as promised. In roughly 40 innings, he boasted an outrageous 32.5% K percentage, with almost all of his expected stats indicating that, when he wasn’t getting swings and misses, he was generating a lot of weak contact. Of course, many of those numbers were likely unsustainable over an entire season, but early signs were strong. Unfortunately, an injury cut his season short, and we never got to find out.

Towards the end of the 2025 season, Bradish returned to the mound for a cup of coffee and proved to everyone that there’s still reason for optimism. In 30 innings, he showed that he hadn’t lost any velocity on his fastball and sinker, averaging about 94.5mph for both pitches, while the whiff rates for his slider and curveball jumped to the mid 40’s. Again, it was a small sample, but those numbers are going to catch the eyes of drafters. And while he’s currently being drafted closer to known entities with higher floors like Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, and Mackenzie Gore, Bradish offers the kind of league-winning mid-round upside that drafters will chase up the board over the winter.

Pitcher - Faller

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles - ADP (160.8)

Back-to-back Orioles, I know. But the initial ADP landing spot for Rogers is a bit perplexing. Yes, he’s coming off a season where he posted a 1.81 ERA and matched his best strikeout percentage since the league cracked down on sticky substances. But Rogers was the benefactor of a career low BABIP (.228), despite a career BABIP of .303, and a hard hit rate of 48%, which placed him in the bottom 3rd percentile of all Major League starters. In fact, his xERA came in about 1.5 runs higher than his actual ERA, and there’s nothing in his pitch mix that suggests he found a new way to get batters out.

These numbers came with only 109.2 IP, so the sample is small, and the luck may have run out had he thrown more innings. Early projections from Steamer and Fangraphs DC expect significant regression, with a strikeout percentage under 20 and an ERA over 4.

Rogers’ ADP places him in a range where there are more consistent options, like Zac Gallen, Aaron Nola, and Nate Eovaldi, as well as upside arms like Cam Schlittler, Bubba Chandler, and Tatsuya Imai. As more drafters flood The Bullpen, I expect Rogers to become less attractive and settle in as a late-round option.

IF - Riser

Munetaka Murakami, Unsigned - ADP (174.5)

Earlier, I alluded to unsigned players as being prime candidates to rise in ADP once they’ve signed, and Murakami is the perfect example. In fact, disregarding the unsigned factor, he’s still probably underpriced. Murakami is one of the most prodigious NPB power hitters entering the league since a somewhat popular hitter/pitcher signed with the Angels back in 2018. His profile is one that translates well to Best Ball, in that he combines his patience with big slug, having mashed 56 homers back in 2022, and is coming off a season where he managed to hit 22 tanks in only 224 at-bats. He boasts big exit velocities, with his 2025 max coming in at 116.5mph.

There are some negatives in that he’s a three-true outcome player, which is to say he strikes out a lot. He struck out 64 times in only 187 at-bats last year, and reportedly struggled to hit velocity well. All that being said, his OBP hasn’t dipped below .379 since his 2019 season, and he will only be 26 years old as he makes his Major League debut.

Even if there are growing pains, this is the type of gamble you want to make in Best Ball, especially in rounds 14-15. Murakami has been linked to the Yankees and Phillies (among others), and if he were to land in one of those offensively friendly environments, he’s going to gain steam quickly. A Joey Gallo outcome is certainly in the cards, but a late-round power hitter who could string together a dominant stretch during the Best Ball playoffs is too enticing to pass up at this price.

IF - Faller

Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks - ADP (71.5)

Some people were surprised when the Diamondbacks signed Geraldo Perdomo to a 4 year, $45 million extension, but he proved many of those doubters wrong. He had a career year, hitting to a .290/.389/.462 slash line, with 20 HR, 98 runs, 100 runs batted in, adding 27 steals to put the cherry on top. That seems pretty enticing, but I still have my doubts.

For one, Perdomo had a career high of 720 plate appearances, affording him plenty of opportunity to accumulate all of those stats that make him so enticing to drafters. As well, his actual slug was about 50 points higher than his expected slug, which aligns with his inability to make hard contact. His barrel percentage came in at 6.2%, well below the league average of 7.2%, which came with an average exit velocity and hard hit percentage that both sat in the bottom 20th percentile of Major League hitters.

Though his walk rate and strikeout rate have always been impressive, Perdomo is the type of player who is more appealing in non-Best Ball formats, like Roto, where he can contribute to several categories. And with the departure of Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor, and potentially Ketel Marte, who has been rumored to be a trade candidate, the offensive environment in Arizona is shaping up to look very different in 2026. There are far too many exciting options around Perdomo at every position for him to stay in this range for long.

OF - Riser

Anthony Santander, Toronto Blue Jays - ADP (114.3)

Tony Taters’ first year in Toronto could not have gone much worse. A notoriously slow starter, Santander managed only 6 homers in his first two and a half months before he hit the shelf with a shoulder issue that kept him off the field until the very end of September, where he got a quick tune-up before the Jays’ postseason run.

A big part of this bet is trusting Santander can use the offseason to get healthy. If he does, he rejoins a lineup that’s poised to score a lot of runs in 2026, with Santander slotting somewhere in the middle of the order. And though he may be an imperfect player, Santander had posted wRC+ numbers of 128, 118, and 121 before 2025, due in large part to his power output.

At his current price, you’ll be hard-pressed to find other OF eligible players who project for 28 HR (per Steamer) and have the potential to hit the 35-40 HR range. He’s certainly more proven than the likes of Heliot Ramos, Luis Robert, and Jakob Marsee, and I think many drafters can sell themselves on a bounce back for Santander.

OF - Faller

Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox - ADP (138.2)

Are we really doing this again? I know OF is thin, and finding players who will start 162 games has value, but Rafaela isn’t it.

In his first few seasons, he has established himself as a defensive asset, but his best offensive season was only good for a 91 wRC+. Few players chase outside of the zone and fail to walk as much as the young center fielder. And when he is making contact, he has difficulty hitting the ball hard, with low exit velocities, and even lower whiff rates because of his poor swing decisions. There’s room for improvement, but unless there are drastic changes in approach and skillset, Rafaela is poised to post similar offensive numbers. Considering there are higher offensive pedigree sophomores in his range like Dylan Crews and Jasson Dominguez, drafters will likely have a hard time clicking Ceddanne at his current ADP.